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ELECTION - 34 days from today

I'LL BE APPEARING ON THE MIKE SCULLY SHOW THIS MORNING, 10:30 ET.  IN THE UPPER NEW YORK CITY AREA, WESTCHESTER COUNTY, AND WESTERN CONNECTICUT, YOU CAN LISTEN ON WVOX, 1460 AM.  YOU CAN ALSO LISTEN ON THE INTERNET HERE. 

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2010

YIKES - AT 9:17 P.M. ET:  This is a surprise, and not a good one.  Is it possible that Lisa Murkowski of Alaska could pull off a Lieberman?  From The Politico:

Two new polls released Wednesday indicate that Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-Alaska) write-in bid may have legs.

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll showed Murkowski down by only 2 percentage points to GOP nominee Joe Miller, who upset the Alaska senator in the Republican primary last month. Democrat Scott McAdams came in third in the poll, drawing 22 percent.

The survey of 927 likely voters found that Murkowski is running particularly well among women, lower-income voters and seniors. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, and was conducted from September 24-28.

A separate poll released by Alaska-based Craciun Research reported Murkowski leading Miller by an 11 percentage point margin—41 percent to 30 percent. McAdams received 19 percent in that poll.

While the polls are good news for Murkowski, neither survey was able to gauge the likelihood that voters will indeed write in Murkowski’s name on the ballot—or if they will be able to correctly do so in order for their vote to be counted.

COMMENT:  The difference with Lieberman, of course, is that Lieberman formed a party when he was denied renomination to the Senate by the Democrats.  That meant that people could enter the voting booth and pull a lever.  Writing a name in is an entirely different procedure.

The two polls differ quite a bit.  We'll wait for others in the coming weeks.

September 29, 2010      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:09 P.M. ET: 

WASHINGTON (AFP) – US astronomers said Wednesday they have discovered an Earth-sized planet that they think might be habitable, orbiting a nearby star, and believe there could be many more planets like it in space.

The Obama administration announced tonight that it is sending a spacecraft to the planet to establish a tax system.

September 29, 2010      Permalink

TERROR UPDATE – AT 8:51 P.M. ET:  We've been searching for information today on the major terror alert that originated in the last few days.  Here is what we've found:

European intelligence agencies apparently discovered a plot for a "Mumbai"-style series of simultaneous attacks in Europe, and believed that the terrorists had already left Pakistan for their assignments on the European continent.  However, the attack was still in the planning stage, and no definite timetable had been worked out.

The plot has now been broken up, but European and British law enforcement do not know where some of the operators are.  There is a strong belief that they are in the UK. 

The United States, cognizant of the terror reports, has stepped up drone attacks in remote areas of Pakistan, from which the operators have come.  The hope is to kill as many as possible and send a powerful message that there will be consequences to terrorist actions.

Stories point out that a coordinated, continent-wide series of attacks would constitute a major escalation of terror strategy – the exact opposite of recent assurances from President Obama that Al Qaeda was actually a weak, broken organization.

Intelligence experts warned Wednesday that the massive terror plot involving simultaneous assault-style attacks in London, Paris, and Germany represents a serious escalation in al-Qaida's war with the West, and poses a clear and present danger to the United States.

European counterterrorism officials are describing the plan of attack as being modeled on the November 2008 assault in Mumbai, India. In that attack, several teams fanned out across the city and used explosives and automatic weapons to kill over 170 people.

Der Spiegel is reporting a 36-year-old Hamburg man who was arrested in Kabul in July provided authorities with intelligence about a series of attacks planned for Germany and neighboring European countries. He stated several teams of attackers bearing European passports had received training in remote Waziristan and Pakistan.

The plot is believed related to heightened security around the Eiffel Tower, which has been closed to tourists twice in the past week.

Mumbai-style attacks, directed at soft, open facilities like hotels, are remarkably easy to carry out.  A small group of terrorists, in business suits and with valid credit cards, and carrying ordinary luggage filled with weapons, could easily get into hotels, and stay a few delightful nights if necessaary before coordinating their actions and striking.

There is no indication, thus far, that the attacks were directed against the American homeland.  But the great police commissioner of New York, Ray Kelly, has assured citizens that the NYPD is taking nothing for granted.

We'll be following this.  The fact that Al Qaeda could be planning something this large is deeply disturbing.  Sooner or later, the odds will be with them.

September 29, 2010      Permalink

NEW TERROR ALERT – AT 8:34 A.M. ET:  We have few publishable certainties on this, but it's clear from reporting in the last few days that European and U.S. intelligence agencies are deeply concerned about the possibility of a coordinated series of terror attacks.  From ABC News:

US and European officials said Tuesday they have detected a plot to carry out a major, coordinated series of commando-style terror attacks in Britain, France, Germany and possibly the United States.

A senior US official said that while there is a "credible" threat, no specific time or place is known. President Obama has been briefed about the threat, say senior US officials.

Intelligence and law enforcement authorities in the US and Europe said the threat information is based on the interrogation of a suspected German terrorist allegedly captured on his way to Europe in late summer and now being held at Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan.

US law enforcement officials say they have been told the terrorists were planning a series of "Mumbai-style" commando raids on what were termed "economic or soft" targets in the countries. Pakistani militants killed 173 people with guns and grenades during the 2008 attacks in Mumbai, India.

In testimony before Congress last week, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said, "We are all seeing increased activity by a more diverse set of groups and a more diverse set of threats."

COMMENT:  What strikes us is the unanimity of opinion in intelligence circles.  Also, the time right before an American election is ideal for a terror strike.   A terror attack in Spain changed the results of its presidential election.  Terrorists may reason, incorrectly, that a massive terror attack now would weaken American resolve.  They don't know us.

September 29, 2010      Permalink

WHO ARE THESE ILLITERATE, UNEDUCATED SO-CALLED CITIZENS? – AT 8:04 A.M. ET:  In his wonderfully ironic manner, Andrew Malcom of the LA. Times's Top of the Ticket blog examines a devastating new Gallup survey reporting that Americans, can you believe this, don't trust the news media.  Those ungrateful right-wing nuts:

According to that fringe polling outfit named Gallup, a record 57% of Americans profess little or no trust in this country's mass media to report the news fairly and accurately.

What a crock!

They could have put it another way: An amazing more than four out of 10 Americans (43%) may perhaps believe most everything they read in the news or see on television.

But no, Gallup has to go for the sensational, to feed this crazy belief among a few hundred million Americans that the media is somehow biased in its presentation of the people and happenings that go on all over this crazy place.

And...

According to Gallup's findings, nearly half of the country (48%) is convinced that the....

...news media is too liberal, while only 15% dare to say the media is too conservative. According to this same poll, one-third of Americans think the media is just about right -- meaning not really right-right, but about right, like Goldilocks' porridge.

And...

Ridiculous! If that was the case, these evil-doing media types would focus superficially on the hair or clothing styles and costs of one female political candidate without noting the hair plugs and boring blue everyday neckties of her male opponent.

If the media was really biased, it would ask, say, a meaningless trick geography question of one candidate, while interrogating another on how he handles such a busy travel schedule and still manages to look so good and be a great dad.

Ouch.  Andrew Malcolm at his best.  Read the whole piece.

COMMENT:  The delusional executives in New York, Washington and Atlanta (CNN), believe their problems are caused by the growth of the internet.  That is a factor, but loss of trust is the greater factor.  After all, Fox News is booming, and they face the same internet. 

I sweep the news outlets, print and broadcast, every day.  The extent of the liberal bias in most of them is appalling, and they show little interest in correcting it.  That is their world.  No one who bucks the party line will get far.

September 29, 2010      Permalink 

NEW POLLS SHOW GOP HOPE IN DEM SENATE STRONGHOLDS – AT 7:50 A.M. ET:  New polling has boosted Republican hopes of upsets in two of the states Michael Barone (see post just below) is giving to the Dems in Senate races.

The RealClearPolitics analysis has moved Connecticut and Washington state into the "toss-up" column.  In both states the GOP challenger is making steady progress, although still behind.  I might add that sketchy polling also points to a possible, although improbable upset in New York States, where appointed Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is turning in a sub-par performance against a retired GOP congressman, Joe DioGuardi.  Gillibrand could walk down most streets in the state, and no one would know who she is.   

But the RealClearPolitics map also shows potential danger for Republicans.  RCP has six seats now listed as toss-ups.  If there's a Dem surge toward the end, and many in the mainstream media will work hard to make it so, Republicans can lose all six, meaning only minimal gains in the new Senate.   While I doubt such an extreme result,  an October surprise could produce it. 

Fight as if you're 20 points behind.

September 29, 2010      Permalink

STUNNING – AT 7:33 A.M. ET:  Superlative political analyst Michael Barone tells us this morning that the Democratic Party is retreating to the coasts, its prospects in most of America vastly diminished.  From the Washington Examiner:

The map of the Senate races shows Republicans leading over almost all the landmass of America. Democrats are ahead in the three West Coast states and Hawaii (though not by much in California and Washington) and by 1 point in Nevada. They're also ahead in four states along the Atlantic Coast -- Maryland, Delaware, New York, Connecticut -- plus Vermont.

Republicans lead in all the other Senate races, from Philadelphia to Phoenix and Boca Raton to Boise. True, their candidate leads by only 1 point in Barack Obama's home state of Illinois. And they've got narrow leads in some mountain states (West Virginia, Colorado, Kentucky)...

...It would be more difficult to draw a map showing the party margins in the 435 House districts. For one thing, there are no publicly available polls in many districts. But if you could draw such a map, I think you'd see Democrats holding onto districts dominated by their core constituencies (blacks, Hispanics, and the affluent voters Joel Kotkin calls gentry liberals) and struggling just about everywhere else, from factory towns to high-income suburbs.

Taken together, all these maps show a Democratic Party shrinking back to its bicoastal base and a Republican Party expanding to take in most of the vast expanse of the continent.

Barone cautions, of course, that the election has not yet been held, and that results can change. 

But for the moment, anyway, the vast expanse of America is hospitable to Republicans while Democrats seem appreciated only in their coastal and campus redoubts.

COMMENT:  And, of course, appreciation in campus redoubts has its limits.  After all, say some academics, Obama is not leftist enough.

Barone paints a gloomy picture for the Dems.  Our hearts are breaking.

September 29, 2010     Permalink 

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2010

CONNECTICUT SLAPDOWN – AT 8:32 P.M. ET:  Incredible, but the U.S. Senate race in Connecticut, a solidly blue state, has turned very competitive. 

After enduring months of ridicule over her background in the high sport of professional wrestling, GOP candidate Linda McMahon is breathing down the neck of Dem candidate Richard Blumenthal, the state attorney general.  Is McMahon the new Scott Brown?  From The Politico:

Republican Linda McMahon and Democrat Richard Blumenthal are virtually tied in the Connecticut Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday.

McMahon trails Blumenthal, 46 percent to 49 percent — a 3-point difference that is within the poll’s margin of error. Only 4 percent of voters surveyed reported they were still undecided.

Blumenthal was considered a shoo-in for the open Connecticut Senate race earlier this year because of his high marks from voters as the state’s five-term attorney general. Blumenthal still has a high approval rating — 68 percent in the poll — but he is quickly losing ground in the Senate contest to the wealthy political newcomer.

A similar Quinnipiac University poll released two weeks ago showed Blumenthal with a 6-point lead, 51 percent to 45 percent, over McMahon.

"With five weeks to go, the Connecticut Senate race is very close. Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is ahead by only a statistically insignificant 3 points,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz. “Blumenthal has to be concerned about Linda McMahon's momentum. He can hear her footsteps as she closes in on him.”

COMMENT:  We'll wait for some confirming polls before breaking out in a smile, but if the Connecticut seat being vacated by Chris Dodd can be taken by the GOP, it will have the same political impact as Scott Brown's taking the Kennedy seat in Massachusetts.  It's still uphill for Linda, but her background as an executive of the World Wrestling Federation seems to be coming in handy.  She's a fighter.

September 28, 2010      Permalink

AND NOW IT BEGINS – AT 7:50 P.M. ET:  The first provisions of Obamacare are taking effect.  And the result?  Not quite what we were sold.  Reader Arley Ward refers us to this, from the Boston Globe:

Harvard Pilgrim Health Care has notified customers that it will drop its Medicare Advantage health insurance program at the end of the year, forcing 22,000 senior citizens in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine to seek alternative supplemental coverage.

Wait, wait.  Weren't we told we could keep our current plans?  Am I missing something?

The decision by Wellesley-based Harvard Pilgrim, the state’s second-largest health insurer, was prompted by a freeze in federal reimbursements and a new requirement that insurers offering the kind of product sold by Harvard Pilgrim — a Medicare Advantage private fee for service plan — form a contracted network of doctors who agree to participate for a negotiated amount of money. Under current rules, patients can seek care from any doctor.

Wait.  Weren't we told we could keep the doctor of our choice?

“We became concerned by the long-term viability of Medicare Advantage programs in general,’’ said Lynn Bowman, vice president of customer service at Harvard Pilgrim’s office in Quincy. “We know that cuts in Medicare are being used to fund national health care reform. And we also had concerns about our ability to build a network of health care providers that would meet the needs of our seniors.’’

Wait, wait.  Cuts in Medicare are being used to fund reform?  I thought Medicare was going to get better?

COMMENT:  There's a kind of irony here.  The plan is called Harvard – ah, the president must be pleased – located in Wellesley, Massachusetts, home of Hillary's alma mater.  And things aren't going well.

Soon the American people will learn what Obamacare is really about.  Stand by for insurrection.

September 28, 2010      Permalink

ABSOLUTELY RECKLESS, CRAZY STUFF – AT 7:51 A.M. ET:  The term, "the will of the people," has apparently been banished from Democratic Party vocabulary.  These guys are getting nutso.  From The Hill:

Democrats are considering cramming as many as 20 pieces of legislation into the lame-duck session they plan to hold after the Nov. 2 election.

The array of bills competing for floor time shows the sense of urgency among Democratic lawmakers to act before the start of the 112th Congress, when Republicans are expected to control more seats in the Senate and House.

But, given the slow pace of the Senate, it also all but guarantees that Democrats will be hard-pressed to pass even a small part of their lame-duck agenda.

The highest-profile item for November and December is the tax cuts of 2001 and 2003, passed under President George W. Bush, which expire at year’s end...

...Democratic leaders have also prioritized the defense authorization bill, which includes a repeal of the “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy that bans gays from serving openly in the military...

...Sen. Dick Durbin (Ill.), the chamber’s second-ranking Democrat, has promised to push for a vote on the DREAM Act, which would give the children of illegal immigrants a chance to earn legal residence.

COMMENT:  What you see in this story is the sad spectacle of a party that no longer knows how to do things.  Lyndon Johnson, one of the great legislators of the 20th century, must be turning over in his grave.

There may well be legislation brought up during the lame-duck session that has merit, maybe even great merit.  But the way in which this is being done – allowing all those defeated Congress members the chance to vote on critical bills after their defeat, but before the new Congress takes over, will turn people off.  Can you imagine the spectacle, especially if very liberal legislation is slammed through?

The Dems have had years, at least since 2007, to pass some of their pet legislation, and they've wasted vast amounts of time. 

This looks like a party merely out to prove to key parts of its coalition that it keeps its promises.  It does not look like serious legislating. 

September 28, 2010     Permalink

ANOTHER SLAM FOR OBAMA – AT 7:10 A.M. ET:   We've said before that the Brits are doing some of the best reporting on President Obama.  Now Tony Harnden, a sharp British observers of American politics, predicts that Mr. Obama will serve four years, period.  Harnden focuses on Bob Woodward's new book, "Obama's Wars," and how it portrays Obama the commander-in-chief: 

A president has no more solemn duty than that of being commander-in-chief. And judging from the evidence presented by Woodward, Barack Obama's view of that role is at best disquieting.

Nearly 100,000 American troops are now committed to Afghanistan but Obama's principal war aim is to withdraw and his main preoccupation is how the conflict plays domestically, particularly within his own Democratic party.

"This needs to be a plan about how we're going to hand it off and get out of Afghanistan," Obama says at one stage. At another he declares that "everything we're doing has to be focused on how we're going to get to the point where we can reduce our footprint".

Obama comes across as viewing his generals with thinly-disguised hostility, while at the same time acquiescing to their proposals for the escalation of the Afghan war he so wants to avoid. His arbitrary drawdown of July 2012 was a signal to the Taliban to hang on because American commitment to success was lukewarm and time-limited.

The description of Obama staffers glorying in the firing of General Stanley McChrystal because they believed it boosted the president's macho credentials (it did the opposite) brings shame on the administration.

And...

In the meantime, Obama's Democratic allies on Capitol Hill are either running away as fast as they can from the president or curling up in the fetal position by postponing a congressional vote on whether to extend the Bush tax cuts – a move that makes them look both weak and cowardly.

For the first time, and despite the fact that no credible Republican candidate for 2012 has yet emerged, Obama is looking like a one-term president while one-party rule in Washington is in its death throes.

COMMENT:  You hear that buzz in political circles in the U.S., and in the buzz one can detect the name "Hillary." 

But don't count chickens please.  Both Reagan and Clinton were down after two years in office, and both came back to be reelected.  Obama is smart enough to enlist the people who can salvage his administration.  The problem is, he may not be smart enough to salvage himself.

I think one term is a clear possibility.

September 28, 2010      Permalink

MAJOR PERSONNEL NEWS – AT 7:05 A.M. ET:  The United Nations, in its wisdom, once again advances the cause of peace and harmony among all...well...  From Britain's Telegraph:

A space ambassador could be appointed by the United Nations to act as the first point of contact for aliens trying to communicate with Earth.

Mazlan Othman, a Malaysian astrophysicist, is set to be tasked with co-ordinating humanity’s response if and when extraterrestrials make contact.

Aliens who landed on earth and asked: “Take me to your leader” would be directed to Mrs Othman.

She will set out the details of her proposed new role at a Royal Society conference in Buckinghamshire next week.

The 58-year-old is expected to tell delegates that the proposal has been prompted by the recent discovery of hundreds of planets orbiting other stars, which is thought to make the discovery of extraterrestrial life more probable than ever before.

COMMENT:  Now, what really got me about this story wasn't that the UN would appoint a space ambassador.  It's the UN, after all.  They do stuff like that.  No, what got me was the belief that, if an alien landed anywhere on Earth, and said, "Take me to your leader," the creature would be directed to the UN ambassador.  Wanna bet?  You talk about belief in bureaucracy.  That wins some kind of award.

So the capsule comes down just outside Dallas and some Texan who's got concealed/carry confronts the occupants, and immediately provides them with the address, in Mayalsia, of Mazlan Othman, an address we all have with us.  (Don't you?)  The Texan also has a list of convenient Mayalsian landing areas for space capsules. 

I wonder how many American dollars the UN will spend on this deal.

September 28, 2010     Permalink

DELVING INTO DELAWARE – AT 7:01 A.M. ET:  Remember Delaware?  Christine O'Donnell?  Witchcraft?  That was the big story two weeks ago. 

The battle is over Joe Biden's Senate seat.  O'Donnell, now the GOP nominee, who got the worst press in the history of cold type, is running anywhere from 10 to 15 points behind her Democratic opponent, Christ Coons, a man who once described himself as a "bearded Marxist."  What is it about Delaware?  It seems to be home to quirky candidates and credit-card companies. 

Here is the latest:

As Rep. Michael N. Castle (R) ponders a write-in campaign for Delaware's open Senate seat, it became clear Monday that there's more at stake than his political legacy.

A Rasmussen Reports poll found that a Castle write-in bid could breathe new life into the candidacy of GOP nominee Christine O'Donnell, the tea-party-backed conservative pundit who has been widely dismissed as too conservative to win the general election

According to the poll, a Castle write-in candidacy would derive its support most directly from supporters of Democratic hopeful Chris Coons. The poll found Castle would cut into Coons' support by at least 5 percent, potentially more, turning a likely blowout for Democrats into a more competitive contest.

The survey of 500 likely Delaware voters on Sunday gave Coons 49 percent, compared with 40 percent for O'Donnell and 5 percent for a Castle write-in, according to Rasmussen, which became the first polling firm to survey the effect of a Castle write-in campaign. The 9-point difference between Coons and O'Donnell is a far cry from the 15-point or larger disadvantage reported by three separate public polls earlier in the month.

"Castle has not indicated that he will run a write-in campaign and it is likely that his support could increase if he were to do so," the Rasmussen findings noted. "Rasmussen Reports did ask Castle supporters who they would vote for in a two-person race and virtually all said either Coons or not sure."

Castle has until Thursday afternoon to make a decision.

COMMENT:  With poll numbers like that, I doubt that Castle will jump in.  But Christine O'Donnell is at 40%.  Victory will be very difficult for her, especially after the press attacks she sustained, but not impossible.  If she can move to within six points or so of Coons in the next two to three weeks, a last-minute surge, similar to the one that got her the GOP nomination, isn't out of the question.

September 28, 2010     Permalink